Democracy Digest: The Price of Endorsement – Hungary Signs Defence, Energy Deals with US

A recent report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) think tank is trying to answer one of the more consequential “what ifs” in modern Polish politics: what if the country never joined the EU? Its conclusion is stark: using a synthetic control model – an econometric method that constructs a hypothetical “non-EU Poland” based on comparable economies – the report’s authors estimate that Poland’s economy is now around 42 per cent larger than it would have been without accession. In practical terms, today’s GDP would be closer to its 2015 level had the country stayed outside the bloc. EU membership opened access to the single market, accelerated trade and foreign investment, and helped stabilise institutions. The gains, the report suggests, have proved durable rather than front-loaded. PIE tested nearly 400 variations of the model, each constructing a different counterfactual path for Poland after 2004. In every one, accession delivered a positive result: depending on the scenario, the estimated gain ranged from 22 to 61 per cent, hence the average of 42 per cent. That trajectory is visible in the broader data. Poland’s economy was growing at over 4 per cent at the end of 2025, has overtaken Switzerland as the world’s 20th largest economy, and was invited to the G20 last year. It was also the only EU country to avoid recession during the 2008 financial crisis, and remained relatively resilient through the pandemic. The report however lands in a more politically charged climate than it might have a few years ago. While support for EU membership remains high – 82 per cent of Poles back it, according to a recent CBOS survey – the Eurosceptic edge of Polish politics has become more audible. President Karol Nawrocki has repeatedly cast EU climate and sovereignty debates in civilisational terms, while the far-right Confederation of the Polish Crown, led by Grzegorz Braun, has made outright hostility to the bloc part of its political offering. Nearly one in ten respondents in the same survey said they saw potential benefits in leaving the EU.

Meanwhile, on the banks of the Lusatian Neisse, a more literal form of European integration is beginning to take shape. Officials from Poland and Germany have launched construction of United Heat, a project that will connect the district heating systems of Görlitz and Zgorzelec – two towns long divided by a border, and now increasingly treated as a single energy system. The idea is simple, if technically ambitious: replace fossil fuel-based heating with a shared cross-border network powered entirely by renewables. The system will draw on a mix of biomass, heat pumps using lake water and wastewater, solar thermal energy, and smaller contributions from waste heat and “power-to-heat” technologies. Around 12 kilometres of new pipelines will link the networks, with the potential to connect additional households over time. At the launch, Polish and German officials presented the project as both a decarbonisation measure and a hedge against future energy shocks. Germany has committed 81.6 million euros to its side of the scheme, while its economy minister, Katherina Reiche, called it “a striking example of how local authorities can successfully collaborate on heat supply across national borders.” Polish Energy Minister Milosz Motyka said the project should help stabilise heat supply, optimise energy use and develop lower-emission technologies. He also emphasised the less practical dimension of the project, calling it “a symbolic gesture of partnership and our shared responsibility”. United Heat, also backed by EU funding, is expected to cut emissions by up to 50,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually – a modest number at national scale, but one that points to a broader shift: decarbonisation not as a national effort, but as a shared infrastructure.