Amid the shortage of Patriot air defence missiles, Ukrainian arms manufacturer seeks to build its own alternative to shoot down ballistic missiles. The estimated start of production in 2027 is optimistic, but experts say it might just work.
Tomáš Hrivňák
This story is a part of the weekly newsletter about economy, defence, and tech in the eastern flank of Nato, How we cee it.
The US-Israeli war against Iran has exposed a vulnerability in Europe that had previously received little attention: air defence systems.
Countries on Nato’s eastern flank depend on the US Patriot system for defence against enemy ballistic missiles.
But as the US and its allies in the Middle East expended a historic number of Patriot missiles repelling Iranian attacks, the situation sparked concerns about whether ordered supplies for European allies would be fulfilled on time. Washington has also shifted some of its Patriot batteries to the Middle East from Europe.
With the US president threatening to leave Nato, anxieties about the future of European air defense and missile supplies are growing. Europe’s only anti-ballistic system, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T, is produced in relatively small numbers.
Ukraine, for which Patriot missiles provide a lifeline against Russian ballistic missiles such as the powerful Iskander, is looking for a way to outmaneuver a tough spot—just as it has done so many times throughout the war.
“Domestic production of air defence capabilities, along with long-range strike systems, is something Ukraine urgently needs—and has needed for a long time. Its dependence on transfers from partner countries, which can be delayed or insufficient, has become untenable, as Russia continues to exploit these vulnerabilities,” says Olena Kryzhanivska, a defence analyst and author of the Ukraine’s Arms Monitor newsletter.
Alternatives to Patriot exist — among them the Israeli Barak system ordered by Slovakia, David’s Sling acquired by Finland, and the South Korean Cheongung-II used by the United Arab Emirates last month.
These systems, however, are roughly as expensive to operate as Patriot.
Ukraine’s latest bid is to develop a more affordable alternative. The company behind the idea is Fire Point, which is partnering with as-yet-unspecified European partners.
Fire Point makes the FP-1, likely the most widely used deep-strike drone in Ukraine’s arsenal, as well as a cruise missile nicknamed Flamingo.
Fire Point co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilierman told Reuters this week that the company aims to slash the cost of intercepting a ballistic missile to below $1m [€850,000].
To bring down a ballistic projectile, the Patriot system, manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, often requires two or three interceptor missiles, each costing several million dollars.
“If we can decrease it to less than $1m, it will be a game changer in air defence solutions,” he said. “We plan to intercept the first ballistic missile at the end of 2027.”
Shtilierman declined to name the European companies involved in the discussions but said Fire Point is interested in collaboration on radar, missile target-seeking, and communications systems.
“The 2027 deadline sounds optimistic, but it does not mean that these systems will have reached full maturity by then. Rather, they are expected to be operational and already in use,” says Olena Kryzhanivska.
70-80% as effect as a Patriot, at a third of the price
According to the Czech military analyst Lukáš Visingr, the system probably won’t be as capable as Patriot, as it’s practically impossible to achieve Patriot-level quality at a dramatically lower price point. “But it should be possible to develop something with perhaps 70 to 80 percent of Patriot’s effectiveness, with missiles costing about a third of the price,” says the expert.
For military capabilities to be effectively used in wartime, Kryzhanivska argues, they do not need to be perfect. They can be deployed and then further refined based on battlefield feedback — a key difference, she says, between the traditional Western approach and Ukraine’s way of doing things.
While Western companies tend to continue refining their products before deployment, Ukraine fields its innovations early and upgrades them iteratively in response to real-world use.
She points to another Fire Point product as an example: the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile. While less precise than more advanced technological counterparts and still a work in progress, it remains capable of delivering destructive strikes against critical enemy infrastructure and has demonstrated an increasing ability to penetrate Russian air defence and electronic warfare systems.
The Flamingo has also been used to hit Russian military facilities and arms factories, including a ballistic missile plant nearly 1,400km inside Russian territory.
Fire Point is now in the final stages of developing two supersonic ballistic missiles, Shtilierman told Reuters.
The smaller FP-7, expected to be comparable to Lockheed Martin’s ATACMS short-range ballistic system with a range of around 300km, is set for its first military deployment in the near future. It is also intended for use in the new anti-missile defence system the company is currently developing.
The larger FP-9, capable of carrying an 800kg warhead up to 850km, is due to be tested soon. If it performs as designed, it would place Moscow within range of Ukraine’s ballistic arsenal.
