Listen: Can Ukraine still win the war?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

Find the full transcript below:

Fights are still very much ongoing in Ukraine.

While Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was in Berlin and then Oslo this Tuesday (14 April), his country was once again under heavy Russian attacks.

Overnight from Monday to Tuesday, Russia launched at least four missiles and 129 drones at Ukraine. Then on Tuesday morning, the city of Dnipro was hit as well, leaving around fifteen people injured.

So, where do things stand when it comes to the prospects for peace in Ukraine?

On the ground, Ukrainians are still holding the line. In fact, the Russian army has slowed its advance since the start of the year. In March, for example, it didn’t make any territorial gains.

According to the outlet Le Grand Continent, at the current pace, it would take Russia 229 years to conquer all of Ukraine.

But at the same time, Ukraine hasn’t been able to retake occupied territories either. And its resistance comes at a very high cost.

At the end of March, Russia launched its major spring offensive. The result: increased pressure both on the ground and from the air. The surge in drone attacks is a clear sign of that.

Over the past few days, Russian airstrikes have intensified across the country. Just on Tuesday morning, Dnipro was targeted by missiles, as well as Kyiv with a terrorist attack, and a port in the Odesa region.

So, what about ceasefire talks?

First, the Easter truce that was supposed to hold over the weekend of 11–12 April didn’t last. Ukraine accuses Russia of violating it— and Moscow says the exact same thing about Ukraine.

Even before it began, Zelensky had proposed extending the truce beyond Easter. According to him, Russia refused.

More broadly, peace negotiations are still at a standstill. No new meetings are currently scheduled, including under US mediation.

In other words, diplomatically, nothing is really moving.

Could the two positions shift?

For now, Russia is showing no real signs of compromise. It claims a deal is within reach — but only if Ukraine makes concessions. In practical terms, that would mean giving up territory.

Ukraine, for its part, remains firm—backed by international law and European support.

One idea that’s been discussed in recent months is freezing the current front line. That would mean accepting, in practice, Russian presence in parts of eastern Ukraine — without officially recognising those territories as Russian.

That would be a major concession for Kyiv. But given the current dynamics, a full Russian withdrawal seems unlikely.

The issue is that even this kind of compromise doesn’t appear to satisfy Vladimir Putin.

There is, however, one more positive development for Ukraine: the approval of a €90bn loan by the EU, after Viktor Orbán, who was blocking the loan, was ousted from power in Hungary.

Could that change the course of the war effort?

Not entirely.

That money will provide real relief to Ukraine’s economy. But it will be disbursed over time and mainly used to keep the country running —paying pensions, funding public services, etc.

Much less of it will go directly toward military efforts.

Still, it plays a role. It helps Ukraine stay afloat and reduces the pressure to accept a peace deal that would heavily favor Russia.

To wrap up, not much has changed in recent weeks.

One possible outcome — still not widely discussed — is a ceasefire without a clear agreement, with very blurred lines. Something similar to what happened after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

It wouldn’t be a lasting solution at all. But according to Le Grand Continent, this kind of scenario has actually been more common in wars since 1945 than a clear victory or a formal peace deal.