In Hungary, prime minister Viktor Orbán could lose the next elections after 10 years in power. But what would this mean for the EU? Could the traditional Hungarian veto become a thing of the past?
Léa Marchal
Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.
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In Hungary, prime minister Viktor Orbán could lose the next elections after 10 years in power. And this, despite having the open support of [US president] Donald Trump.
If Orbán were to actually lose the elections, what would this mean for the EU? Could the traditional Hungarian veto become a thing of the past?
Since 2010, Viktor Orbán’s party, Fidesz, has comfortably won every legislative election in Hungary.
In Brussels, Hungary has been the black sheep for a while. The Hungarian delegation consistently opposes many of the EU’s decisions on external affairs, but also in other areas like the budget, fundamental rights, or energy.
This could, however, change in the coming legislative elections, taking place in April.
44-year-old Páter Magyar, who used to be an influential member of Fidesz until 2024, is running in the election with his own party, Tisza, which means “Respect and Liberty”.
The latest polls indicate that he would win by nine points. And this trend has been consistent for several months.
What is the difference between these two men?
After a major scandal inside the Fidesz government in 2024, Magyar broke with the party and revealed further corruption cases to the public. He even went as far as accusing his ex-wife, Judith Varga, who served as Orbán’s Minister of Justice.
Since then, Magyar has been accusing the government of putting EU money in the hands of powerful figures and of not fighting poverty in Hungary.
In parallel, Magyar was elected in 2024 as a Member of the European Parliament, alongside six other members of his party, Tisza. They are part of the leading right-wing political group, the EPP.
In his campaign, Péter Magyar promises to implement the reforms that the European Commission is demanding on the rule of law. This would unblock some €18bn of EU funds currently held back by Brussels.
Should we take that for granted?
While Péter Magyar has built his whole campaign on anti-corruption pledges, he is accused by some of having benefited from the system he now criticises.
Over the past 20 years, he held important roles on the boards of state-owned companies, and he served as an official within the administration while married to a member of the government.
Now, on substance, the programme he is proposing is not so different from Fidesz’s.
In fact, looking at the votes of the two parties in the European Parliament, they are broadly aligned.
For instance, contrary to what Magyar is claiming, he is not actively working to protect the rule of law in the EU.
Policy analyst Eric Maurice from the think tank European Policy Centre has warned that the EU should manage expectations regarding a potential regime shift in Hungary.
In recent years, Hungary has been blocking many files in Brussels in cases where unanimity is required during the vote. The most striking examples concern support for Ukraine in its war effort against Russia, or the procedural steps to integrate Ukraine into the EU.
And here, Peter Magyar affirms that he will not take a different stance. His party is clearly against an accelerated procedure to welcome Ukraine into the EU.
Looking again at the voting patterns in the European Parliament, it appears that Magyar’s party members have repeatedly voted against strengthening support for Ukraine or condemning Russia in strong terms.
What this suggests is that, in any case, the traditional Hungarian veto would not disappear, especially on Ukraine-related decisions.
Not to forget that Viktor Orbán could still win the elections, despite what polls suggest.
He can count on the active support of the Trump administration. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Orbán in Budapest on Monday to reaffirm the alliance between the two countries. “Your success is our success,” he said to Orbán in view of the elections.
