Estonia’s foreign intelligence service chief Kaupo Rosin reflects on a whole-of-society approach to defence, one unexpected threat to Europe, and what he realised at 16.
Ondřej Kundra
Estonia’s foreign intelligence service chief Kaupo Rosin reflects on a whole-of-society approach to defence, one unexpected threat to Europe, and what he realised aged 16.
KAUPO ROSIN
Since 2022, Kaupo Rosin has led the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (Välisluureamet) as its director general. A career intelligence officer, Rosin spent a significant portion of his career at the Estonian Military Intelligence Center (EMIC), which he commanded from 2012 to 2018. Before stepping into his current role, he served a four-year tenure at Nato Headquarters in Brussels as the deputy director of the Intelligence Production Unit.
The US president Donald Trump is considering withdrawing some American troops from Europe because he is unhappy with the limited involvement of European Nato members in his war against Iran. The Americans are also in Estonia; are you afraid they might leave here as well?
For us, the presence of US troops is of course an important part of our defence against Russia. So we are logically following these considerations with some concern. But so far we have had no indication from the American side that this was going to happen.
Are you taking any steps to dissuade Washington from doing that? And was your government’s statement that Estonia was ready to help the US in the Iran war part of those efforts?
Our overall position, both in the past and now, has always been aimed at securing the support of our allies. We are always ready to help our allies in any situation. In this respect our policy has been consistent for the past 30 years.
How do you assess the future of the war in Iran?
It is hard to say. I do not have any special information about the ongoing talks; I was glad there was some kind of truce. But the positions of the different sides vary greatly, which makes it difficult to predict how the negotiations will develop and what else will happen.
The North Atlantic Alliance is key for all Baltic countries in deterring Russia from an attack, which various Russian officials occasionally threaten. People around Trump, and Trump himself, have been talking about the possibility that the United States could leave the alliance. Is there a risk of Nato breaking up? What would that mean for you?
From our side we are doing everything to ensure that Nato remains a credible alliance in the future as well.
In response to Trump’s threats, Ukraine’s ambassador to Nato said the current crisis could give birth to a new, ‘European Nato’, with Ukraine – defending itself and Europe from Russian expansionism – at its centre. How do you view such a possibility?
Estonian policy and its message have always been directed towards our allies, especially in Europe, that everyone must invest more in defence. That is crucial. In 2026 we are spending more than five percent of GDP purely on defence. We are taking other steps as well. We will continue in this way in the coming years. And we are strongly encouraging European countries to increase their defence spending too and to take our common European defence seriously.
The Czech Republic plans to invest 1.8 percent of GDP in the defence budget this year. Is that sufficient?
We all need to move towards five percent of GDP; in the current risky geopolitical situation that is the minimum.
‘We know their ambitions’
We are sitting together at the headquarters of the Estonian foreign intelligence service. Your people should be the first to have information about a possible Russian attack on the Baltics. If Russia decided to do that, how much advance warning would you have here?
We constantly monitor all indicators related to the Russian military threat. And if such a decision were taken on the Russian side, we would want to know about it in advance, as early as possible. We put every effort into that. The longer the period in which this does not happen, the better for us. It allows us to prepare as much as possible and at the same time to make it clear to Russia that an attack would be grossly against its interests. We talked about the alliance and its members; they also have intelligence services that deal with this problem – to detect Russia’s intentions in time. In Nato we also have an early-warning system; the Alliance closely monitors developments. We cooperate intensively and share information.
In your recently published annual report you wrote that there was currently no reason to panic, that this year Russia would not attack Estonia or any other Nato country. On the basis of what facts did you reach that conclusion?
There is an important sentence added to that: that in order to maintain this situation, everyone must really work hard on our collective defence. Only then can deterrence be credible.
Could your estimate change this year or next year?
Just as we do, Russia is closely watching what steps we take in defence. And it factors that into its potential calculations. Moscow is heavily engaged in the invasion of Ukraine, and this involvement is currently consuming most of its military resources. To wage the current war against Ukraine and at the same time start another conflict elsewhere is therefore unlikely at this point.
How many soldiers does Russia currently have near the Baltic borders?
