Trump has thrown the people of Iran under the bus

“Never interrupt your enemy whilst he is making a mistake,” Napoleon is said to have remarked.

It is just one of the many historical lessons of warfare that US president Donald Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu have ignored over the past 40 days.

The result is that they have lost the war against Iran and failed to achieve any of their objectives.

The regime and its allies have emerged from the conflict strengthened, just at a time when their position was beginning to falter. 

Until 28 February 2026, the day this war began, the Iranian regime had endured a bleak 18 months. The influence the country had built up in the region was gradually crumbling.

The so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ was all but non-existent.

Hezbollah, the Shia militia in Lebanon, had reportedly lost 70 percent of its military capacity in the war with Israel. Hamas had also been severely weakened by the war in Gaza. In Syria, president Bashar al-Assad was forced to flee the country following the spectacular power grab by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who immediately severed all ties with Iran.

Thus, in a short space of time, Iran lost the regional power base it had carefully built up over decades.

The popularity of Iranian ideology also declined sharply.

Sympathy for Tehran wanes

Many in the Middle East had a certain sympathy for Iran’s anti-colonial discourse, as it was the only country that dared to stand up to the West after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

But following the wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, people in the region yearned above all for peace and stability.

The fact that Hezbollah launched another war against Israel in 2024 was therefore not well received in Lebanon.

For the first time, the country had a prime minister and a president who both openly advocated for the disarmament of the militia. I myself saw how, in January 2026, the posters of Iranian leaders such as Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei, which had always hung everywhere in Beirut, had now disappeared.

In Iraq too, the Shia parties were increasingly distancing themselves from the regime in Tehran.

In Iran itself, too, discontent with the rulers of the Islamic Republic was growing.

The economy is struggling, whilst inflation has skyrocketed since 2017. This is partly the result of additional sanctions imposed by Trump at the time. But it also became clear to many Iranians that the government bears responsibility for this through poor policy.

Moreover, a large part of the economy is in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard, which enriches itself, whilst necessary investments were not made.

A key example is the water infrastructure, which, due to negligence, led to water shortages. The fact that Iran invested many billions in spreading its revolutionary ideology, and thus in militias such as Hezbollah and the dictatorial regime of Assad in Syria, also caused frustration among the population.

When Assad was ousted from power in December 2024, Iranians realised that all those investments had been in vain, whilst they themselves were struggling to make ends meet.

Finally, it was clear that more and more people had had enough of the fanatical religious tyranny that had oppressed the country since 1979. 

The protests that erupted on 28 December 2025 were an expression of these frustrations. Unlike the many protests that had preceded them in recent decades, people on the streets were now demanding an end to the regime.

Moreover, the traders of the Iranian bazaars formed the backbone of the protests. This had not happened on this scale since the 1979 revolution.

The Iranian regime realised the gravity of the situation and saw that, for the first time since that revolution, it had to fight for its survival.

In previous protests, there had been the odd fatality, but these were usually accidental. Now, the decision was taken to respond with extreme force and organise a massive bloodbath in order to nip any form of protest in the bud. 

For the first time since 1979, the Iranian regime was teetering. There were just enough supporters who truly believed in the Islamic Revolution, the leadership of the jurist and thus Khamenei, to keep this regime afloat.

Ayatollah Khamenei replaced by ayatollah Khamenei

The question, however, was what would happen if the 86-year-old Khamenei were to die. It would undoubtedly have led to major discussions about his succession.

After all, no one possessed the right credentials to become the new supreme leader. In short, the message was to wait and certainly not offer this regime a lifeline to pull itself out of the quagmire after all.

When we now read the ceasefire agreement between Iran, the United States and Israel, this is precisely what has happened.

Trump and Netanyahu have succeeded in throwing their allies in the Gulf and Iran’s opponents under the bus, allowing this regime to emerge from this war as the great victor.

The 86-year-old Khamenei was replaced without a hitch by a 56-year-old Khamenei who can immediately don the victor’s wreath and rule the country with authority for years to come, and perhaps even decades.

After all, the impossible has been achieved: a bitter defeat of the enemy, the most powerful country in the world.

At the same time, Israel’s incursion into southern Lebanon has revived Hezbollah. Are they not the only ones capable of standing up to the Israeli occupiers? 

Perhaps even more cynical than Iran’s military and political victory is the fact that this regime has gained sympathy worldwide.

Iran has managed to stand its ground against Trump and Netanyahu, and this through tactical ingenuity. 

Yet neither of these gentlemen are the biggest losers of this war. That honour goes to the citizens of Iran themselves.

Was Trump not going to protect them?  Today, they are left bereft. After all, who dares to take to the streets now to demand the end of this regime?