UK quietly increases AI emissions forecast 100-fold

The forecast for water consumption from AI data centers has also been increased, from 1 trillion cubic meters in 2035 to between 0.1–0.5 trillion cubic meters each year over the decade.

The revision comes amid heightened scrutiny from MPs and green groups over how the Labour government’s aim to be an “AI maker” aligns with its target of reaching clean power by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

“With this quiet release the government has finally admitted that AI data centres are a climate catastrophe, sucking up unbelievable quantities of electricity which would force us to drive new fossil fuel use at the worst possible time,” Tim Bierley, campaign manager at campaign group Global Justice Now, a non-profit campaigning on justice and environmental issues, said.

“Expansion on this scale will drive a coach and horses through the U.K.’s climate goals and plans for the energy transition — and all to curry favour with Trump and Silicon Valley. It is extremely risky and it is happening without public consent. This should be a wake-up call.”

The government said successfully achieving the government’s clean power target “would mean emissions from AI compute would be towards the bottom” of the forecast range.

While the government said AI hardware has become more energy efficient and further improvements are likely, emissions will be “driven by indirect emissions from the power generation supplying and constructing electricity-intensive data centres and largely depends on how quickly the UK decarbonises its energy grid and how fast AI adoption grows.”