Economists have suggested that at least two members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could vote for interest rates to be hiked later this week. Analysts at JP Morgan, BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs have predicted that hawkish policymakers will push back against leaving interest rates unchanged.
Mauricio Alencar
Monday 27 April 2026 12:28 pm | Updated: Monday 27 April 2026 1:04 pm
Economists have suggested that at least two members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could vote for interest rates to be hiked later this week.
Analysts at JP Morgan, BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs have predicted that hawkish policymakers will push back against leaving interest rates unchanged.
The Bank’s chief economist Huw Pill is expected to lead calls for interest rates to become more restrictive, according to the top banks, with the overall balance expected to be 7-2 in favour of leaving interest rates unchanged.
Pill has repeatedly warned that interest rates have been cut too quickly in the last two years from a peak of 5.25 per cent in mid-2023.
Inflation only briefly returned to the target rate of two per cent in mid-2024 as the transition between the Tory and Labour governments took place.
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It then ramped up to a high of 3.8 per cent months after as firms passed on some of the costs of Rachel Reeves’ £25bn hike to employers’ national insurance contributions onto consumers.
Pill used a speech last year to argue that the Bank should have been more “cautious” in its approach to rate-cutting as inflation expectations among households and businesses had become anchored after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, thereby influencing wage and price-setting behaviours.
Over 37 meetings, Pill has voted to increase rates 14 times and only backed reductions twice. His voting record is in stark contrast to the MPC member Swati Dhingra, who has voted to cut interest rates in 17 of 29 meetings.
Read more ‘Outlook uncertainty’: Interest rates to be left unchanged in crunch decision
Economists have suggested that Pill would argue that the energy price shock from the Iran war could trigger another spiralling in inflation, with both the OECD and the IMF suggesting the UK economy would suffer from higher price growth than the average across G7 nations.
Pill said recently that monetary policy could be used to “contain” an expected spike in inflation.
Hawks to leave mark on interest rates call
Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have said that Pill is likely to be joined by external member Megan Greene in voting to hike interest rates.
BNP Paribas said Catherine Mann, who has frequently surprised economists with her votes, would support a hike to interest rates while Greene would back a hold.
Research by Deutsche Bank has meanwhile found that divisions in the MPC have been “historically high” in the volatile years since the pandemic. Its base scenario is that Pill is the lone hawk while other members vote for interest rates to be held.
Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja also mooted the possibility of one member backing a 25 basis point rate cut due to “potential non-linear shocks to the labour market and growth”.
“The word of the day, we think, will be ‘risk’,” Raja said. “Indeed, with the UK dealing with the unfolding repercussions of the Iran conflict, ‘risk’ remains rife.”
Read more War propels UK inflation in new risk for interest rate hikes
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