Emmanuel Macron is slowly reaching the end of his two terms as president of the French Republic. But who will succeed him?
Léa Marchal
Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.
EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms.
Find the full transcript below:
Emmanuel Macron is slowly reaching the end of his two terms as president of the French Republic. Who will succeed him?
One thing already seems clear: the candidate from the National Rally, the main extreme-right party, will likely make it to the second round of the election — for the third time in a row.
What’s at stake for France and for the European Union?
Let’s start with a quick overview of the candidates.
On the left, first of all: the list of potential candidates is long. And just like in the past two presidential elections, a single candidate seems very unlikely.
In that scenario, with multiple candidates splitting the vote, none of them is likely to make it to the second round.
Now to the right. The Republicans, the traditional rightwing party, are expected to put forward a single candidate, most likely Bruno Retailleau. That could put the party in a good position.
But there’s a factor that could complicate things for them: and his name is Édouard Philippe.
He is a former member of the Republicans, and he was Macron’s first choice for prime minister in 2017, a position he held for three years.
That gives him strong credibility, and he’s currently polling fairly well.
He’s running under the banner of Horizons, a party he founded, placed at the centre-right of the political spectrum. (Just like En Marche, the party Macron created before the 2017 election.)
And last but not least—the National Rally, [Rassemblement National]. It could be represented by Jordan Bardella, because Marine Le Pen has been sentenced to five years’ ineligibility for misusing European public funds. Unless her appeal cancels that sentence, she should not run.
In either case, the National Rally candidate is leading in first-round polls, far in front of Philippe.
Based on various polls one year before the election, a head-to-head between Philippe and Bardella is shaping up.
In that scenario, who is most likely to win?
For now, Bardella is clearly in the lead, but the campaign — and especially TV debates — could work against him.
What may hurt him even more is the so-called “Republican Front”, or firewall against the far-right in the second round.
If the pattern of 2017 and 2022 repeats itself, the candidate facing the National Rally would benefit from a transfer of votes in their favour.
That said, this assumption should be treated with caution.
If the opposite candidate is Philippe, he has a strong chance of winning, as he is seen as credible by rightwing voters, many of whom could support him.
On the other hand, if the candidate facing Bardella is more left-leaning, that may not sit well with the Republicans—or even some supporters of Macron. In that case, they could vote for the National Rally.
Combined with abstentions or blank votes, the risk of a far-right victory becomes very real.
But could the far-right actually govern the country?
That would largely depend on the result of legislative elections, which will happen a few weeks after the presidential one.
If the National Rally were to form an alliance with the Republicans and secure an absolute majority, then yes, it could govern.
In that case, we could expect hardline rightwing policies, likely rollbacks on environmental measures, and stricter conditions for foreign nationals.
On the European stage, there probably wouldn’t be major upheavals on economic issues. But France could become a more disruptive player in Brussels on certain foreign policy matters.
What about other scenarios? The National Rally could win the presidency but fail to secure a majority in the legislative elections. In that case, it would be unable to govern effectively, leading to a period of uncertainty.
Finally, if Philippe or another candidate wins, the question of a parliamentary majority would remain complex.
But the government would likely continue Macron’s policies in broad terms, and France’s international stance would remain consistent.
That’s a quick overview of the possible outcomes — but with a year to go before the election, a lot can still change.
For instance, a single candidate for the left, could well shake up this election.
