A Post-Nato Manifesto: Given that no country can defend itself alone, the priority is to make new alliances — flexible, capable frameworks of threat-aware allies that are willing to take risks and make sacrifices for themselves and for others. The most promising group of like-minded states includes the Nordic five
Edward Lucas
Nato’s survival, not just its summit in the Turkish capital on 7-8 July, is at stake.
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, now speaks bluntly of the alliance’s “ongoing disintegration”.
Capriciousness in the White House over troop deployments and readiness to fight exposes Europe’s strategic nakedness.
Does anyone really believe now that Trump would go to war with Russia over for Europe’s security?
But Viktor Orbán’s departure casts another bleak light on Europe’s dithering. With Hungary’s veto gone, it is clearer that domestic political weaknesses in the big national governments (Britain, France, Germany) create corrosive caution and timidity.
Nor are the institutions in better shape. Their decision-making was already too slow in peacetime. In current conditions it is suicidally sleepy.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin clocks tick ever-faster.
In its latest annual report, Dutch military intelligence reckons Russia could be ready for war with Nato (make that: “the remains of Nato”) within a year of a halt to fighting in Ukraine.
Sub-threshold confrontation?
A sub-threshold confrontation, aimed at busting Europe’s remaining unity and credibility, could come even sooner.
Recent days may feel like scenes in a disaster movie. But in the two months before Ankara we still have a chance to re-write the script.
True, nothing now will be easy, cheap or safe. But we do have options.
Given that no country can defend itself alone, the priority is to make new alliances: flexible, capable frameworks of threat-aware allies that are willing to take risks and make sacrifices for themselves and for others.
The most promising group of like-minded states includes the Nordic five (Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden) and the Baltic three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Together with Britain and the Netherlands, which are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
The JEF is a largely notional military outfit, albeit with excellent PR.
